Dr. John Vanston Speaks on Minitrends at the Metro Breakfast Club on May 2

May 1, 2012

The Metropolitan Breakfast Club of Austin presents Dr. John H. Vanston speaking on MINITRENDS: How to Discover & Profit From EmergingTrends.

WHEN: Wednesday, May 2, 7:00-8:30am
(Breakfast: 7:00-7:50 am, Presentation: 7:50-8:30 am)

WHERE: UT Club, 6th Floor, Darrell Royal Memorial Stadium
2108 E. Robert Dedman Drive, Austin, TX 78705

In this presentation, Dr. John Vanston introduces a new concept – Minitrends – that offers very attractive possibilities to individuals and businesses that learn its principles and apply those principles in a practical business environment. This concept provides a new approach for finding and taking advantage of emerging trends that will become significant in 2-5 years, but are not yet widely recognized or appreciated.

Free Minitrends Session with Dr. John Vanston, March 27, Austin, TX

March 20, 2012

RISE presents a free session with Dr. John H. Vanston speaking on MINITRENDS: How to Discover & Profit From EmergingTrends.

WHEN: Tuesday, March 27, 2012, from 2:00pm – 3:30pm
WHERE: Lake Creek Office Park Meeting Room, 13740 Research Blvd., Austin, Texas 78750

In this presentation, Dr. John Vanston introduces a new concept – Minitrends – that offers very attractive possibilities to individuals and businesses that learn its principles and apply those principles in a practical business environment. This concept provides a new approach for finding and taking advantage of emerging trends that will become significant in 2-5 years, but are not yet widely recognized or appreciated.

The event is FREE. But please sign up here!

Focusing On Competencies for Degree Programs

March 1, 2012

Last week at the Austin Innovators and Entrepreneurs  Series sponsored by IBM Venture Capital Group,  IBM Innovation Center, and the Austin Chamber of Commerce, I had the pleasure of speaking with Michael Bettersworth about what he saw as emerging Minitrends in education. Michael is the associate vice chancellor for technology advancement at Texas State Technical College (TSTC) and director of TSTC Forecasting. TSTC Forecasting identifies new competencies needed by employers so that college curriculum can be updated to increase the employability of college graduates and provide a highly skilled workforce for Texas employers. Since my company, Technology Futures, Inc. (TFI), worked with Michael and TSTC developing the TSTC Forecasting program in 2002 and conducted several technology forecasts for them in the proceeding years (see below for access to electronic versions of those forecasts), I was particularly interested in what he had to say.

According to Michael, “When we began forecasting emerging employer demand we focused primarily at the job and degree plan level. Today we focus on the alignment of competencies across jobs and curriculum. In other words, we have to look for the Minitrends. For example, mobile application development is now an established part of the IT sector. The Minitrend within mobile apps is the need for new competencies such as html5 and Java for structuring and presenting content across mobile devices. Similarly, we don’t need colleges to develop entirely new degree programs for this sector, but rather update curriculum within applicable existing awards or perhaps offer specialized short-term training options for those looking to upskill.”

Michael continues, “A competency-based approach that looks for Minitrends is more efficient and produces more actionable recommendations for college leaders. It’s with this kind of nuanced decision-making that the needs of industries are met and the value of Minitrends can be realized.”

The TSTC Forecasting Program with Michael’s enthusiastic leadership has led to the development of new technology courses, certificates, and degree programs offered at colleges throughout the State of Texas and funding for talent pipeline development through new capacity building and student scholarship grant funds. We appreciate his insight into how to best prepare our workforce for the needs of our future.
___________________

As mentioned above, we at TFI were partners with Michael and TSTC in the development of the TSTC Forecasting program and conducted several technology forecasts for TSTC. The TFI authored or co-authored reports are available in electronic form at no cost to our readers (also for sale on Amazon). (The programs more recent TechBriefs are also available on the TSTC site.)

–Mechatronics, A Technology Forecast, by John H. Vanston, Ph.D., Ph.D., Henry Elliott, M.S.M.E., Jim Brazell, Eliza Evans, Ph.D., James A Irwin, and Michael A. Bettersworth

–Home Technology Integration, A Technology Forecast by John H. Vanston, Ph.D., Henry Elliott, M.S.M.E., Michael A. Bettersworth, MA, and Wayne Caswell

–Emerging Technology Programs for Texas Colleges: Advanced Digital Manufacturing, Hybrid Vehicles, Micro-Electromechanical Systems, and Computer Forensics: Three Emerging Technology Employment Opportunities by John H. Vanston, Ph.D. and Henry Elliott, Program Director: Michael A. Bettersworth

–Homeland Security, A Technology Forecast by John H. Vanston, Ph.D. and Henry Elliott, Program Director: Michael A. Bettersworth

–Fuel Cells, A Technology Forecast by John H. Vanston Ph.D., Henry Elliott, Program Director: Michael A. Bettersworth

–Nanotechnology, A Technology Forecast, by John H. Vanston Ph.D., Henry Elliott, Edited by: Larry Grulick, Ph.D., Michael A. Bettersworth

The TSTC Forecasting program is based on Programs for Emerging Technologies (PET), a process developed by TFI and the Texas State Technical Colleges (TSTC) System for identifying emerging technologies and then forecasting associated technical advances, market developments, and employment opportunities. Many of the concepts involved may be useful to others seeking new growth opportunities.

“Nine Emerging Minitrends to Watch” by Dr. John H. Vanston, MINITRENDS Author & Chairman, TFI

December 28, 2010

Happy holidays to Minitrends blog readers! We appreciate your interest in our Minitrends posts and activities. As we start the new year, there will be many opportunities for those who are alert enough to recognize emerging trends, perceptive enough to realize their importance, and clever enough to take advantage of them. Here I suggest nine Minitrends—emerging trends that will become significantly important within 2-5 years, but are not yet generally recognized—that are well worth examining for possible action by those ambitious individuals who seek to start new ventures or keep existing businesses innovative and competitive.

Unlike megatrends, Minitrends are of a scope and importance to offer attractive opportunities to individual entrepreneurs, decision-makers in small and mid-size businesses, innovative thinkers in large companies, and adventuresome investors. In my new book, MINITRENDS: How Innovators & Entrepreneurs & Discover & Profit From Business & Technology Trends, I categorize the nine Minitrends below to those most applicable to different-sized groups. (In the book, I also discuss the background, current trends, and business opportunities of each of these Minitrends in more depth.)  I do the same categorization below, but in reality, all provide opportunities to perceptive individuals in all-sized businesses.

Minitrends Particularly Applicable to Individuals or Small Groups of Individuals:

1. Expanding Involvement in Virtual Worlds (Free Virtual Worlds book excerpt available):

Virtual worlds are computer-based platforms that allow participants to engage in a wide range of real-world type activities, e.g., buying and building virtual world property, furnishing virtual world homes and offices, producing and selling virtual world goods, traveling, taking part in virtual world social activities such as parties and fundraisers, and communicating with other participants. Increasingly, virtual worlds are being used for educational purposes, product advertisements, new product modeling and testing, identification of new markets, and uncovering unexpected problems with new marketing programs.

2. Support for People Working at Home:

Although an increasing number of people are now conducting all or part of their work at home, these people often find they miss interacting with others and miss the convenience of facilities, equipment, and administrative support. A number of solutions are emerging to better meet the needs and desires of people working at home, including small offices or meeting rooms that can be rented by the day or the hour; chat rooms where people can meet informally to discuss ideas; semiformal groups that meet regularly to establish person-to-person interactions; and temporary support staffs organized to provide administrative assistance as needed.

3. Expanding Capabilities of Advanced Websites:

Although the World Wide Web had proven to be extremely popular, many believed a more interactive platform that took advantage of the Web’s power to communicate would be desirable (Web 2.0). Programmers are now expanding the capabilities of the Web to substitute computer activities for human activities, particularly activities that are repetitive, burdensome, and uninteresting (Web 3.0). Many believe Web 3.0 will eventually lead to effective artificial intelligence that can interact with humans in natural language.

Minitrends Particularly Applicable to Small and Medium-Size Companies:

4. Increasing Interest in Privacy:

Recent advances in technology, together with an increasing willingness of many to make personal information more easily available are threatening traditional concepts of privacy in terms of messaging, personal profiles, and identity. Techniques for countering these invasions of privacy, such as personal caution, technology aids, and group action are now being developed.

5. New Approaches to Giving and Receiving Advice:

Individuals and organizations commonly seek expert advice when making important decisions. In providing such advice, large consulting firms with large, multidisciplinary staffs, well-structured processes and procedures, huge computer capabilities, and long-standing reputations have traditionally had a major advantage. However, the ever-increasing power and ubiquity of information gathering, processing, and communicating technologies, small and medium-size consulting groups are often able to give more focused, timely, and user-friendly advice than the larger firms.

6. Evolution of Meaningful Maturity:

The twin trends of increasing life spans and decreasing retirement ages have caused a steady increase in retirement years. Because of social, personal interest, and/or financial reasons, many older individuals are either staying in their jobs longer or returning to the workforce. Their ability to utilize their experience, skills, and dedication effectively will depend on their current capabilities, their desires, and open opportunities to those willing to assist them.

Minitrends Particularly Applicable to Large Companies:

7. Advances in Digital Manufacturing:

Advanced digital manufacturing (ADM) processes build complex, custom-made parts by the addition of successive layers of material rather than traditional machining processes that cut, bend, and machine a part from stock material. The processes allow quicker production of prototypes and small production runs at a much lower cost. Recent ADM advances, including improved yield rates, reduced time-to-market, increasing variety of materials, and advances in 3D modeling software, have made ADM processes increasingly attractive to many manufacturers.

8. Increasing Electricity Use in Manufacturing:

The characteristics of electric power, such as high power density, no heat transfer medium requirements, controlled energy distribution, reduced material waste, and less environmental impacts, provide a number of benefits to manufacturing processes. Its use, however, has been limited by its relatively high cost. A number of factors, including advances in control technologies, changing customer needs, global competition, and increasing concern about the environment, are driving an increasing growth in the use of electricity in industrial processes.

9. New Applications of Nanotechnology:

When many substances are reduced to nano-size (100 nanometers or less) they often exhibit very different physical, electrical, chemical, and optical properties from the same substance at macro-size. These new properties often provide very unique and useful characteristics to nano-materials that can be used in a wide range of practical applications, such as cancer treatment, very high strength materials, special electronic systems, and water purification. Improved production techniques, decreased costs, and growing experience and understanding are increasing the practical applications of nanotechnologies

Minitrend involvement can give you a way to separate yourself from your colleagues and contemporaries. It provides a means for materially improving your business situation, your financial standing, and your personal satisfaction. I hope the Minitrends listed above will assist you or inspire you to launch your own exciting, profitable Minitrend Adventure that allows you to utilize your imagination, your logic, your innovative nature, and your basic good sense in the coming year.

Copyright 2011. Please feel free to reprint this article in whole or part with due credit to: “by Dr. John H. Vanston, MINITRENDS Author and Chairman, Technology Futures, Inc.” Thanks!

How Large Organizations Foster Innovation

December 14, 2010

An expansive new study just released by the Network for Business Sustainability provides valuable suggestions for executives in large organizations about how to keep their companies innovative and competitive.

The report, “Embedding Sustainability in Organizational Culture,” involved reviewing over 13,000 academic and industrial studies, then narrowing these down to 179 primary sources which were synthesized to extract common principles and best practices.

The issue of how to spur creativity in large organizations was a driving motivation for the new book, MINITRENDS. Author John H. Vanston, Ph.D., a nuclear engineer, university professor, and chairman of the technology forecasting firm, Technology Futures, Inc., is often called upon by large businesses to help them predict the future. These big companies want to ride technology trends, not be run over by them.

It’s one thing to know what’s coming, and another to be able to adjust to it. The new report from the Network for Business Sustainability is chock-full of ideas for keeping large organizations from getting stuck. It contains both the principles of innovation and copious examples of clever ways big companies have found to stay nimble. Here are some suggestions culled from the 74-page report:

• Remove barriers to teamwork and collaboration through the abolition of separate dining rooms for managers and line employees.
• Support an innovation culture through small gestures of recognition. At Bank of America, a small pin presented by high-level management “gave encouragement to employees who enacted the organization’s values and refocused management styles toward promoting and supporting these values.”
• The Ethical Corporation begins every meeting with a quick success story. Storytelling is used to create the “true believers and adherents” essential for embedding innovation. These stories help teach team members new ways of thinking and doing things.
• Include employees in developing team mission statements. This helps employees “build a sense of collective ownership, commitment, and focus and, through this, a culture of innovation.”
• Engage suppliers, customers, and even community representatives in dialogue about innovation. “Organizations must consider the entire supply chain and process, where suppliers and vendors are seen as partners co-designing and co-creating ideas and sustainability innovations.”
• Senior management must nurture feedback channels to “create a safe place for bold ideas to emerge.” The authors suggest that it is not enough to provide a feedback mechanism, but that senior management must actively solicit feedback through those channels and hold regularly-scheduled meetings to review suggestions.
• Innovation challenges, involving deadlines, recognition, and financial rewards, have been effective spurring innovation in many companies.

The study was written by Stephanie Bertels, PhD.,  an assistant professor at Simon Fraser University. She has made the results available, at no charge, in two different formats:

• A Systematic Review of the Body of Knowledge ( 74-page PDF)
• A How-To Guide for Executives (20-page PDF)

For those companies wishing to remain innovative, and for chief executives concerned about the future of their organizations when they leave, I would also recommend the book, MINITRENDS. If we have focused on entrepreneurs and small businesses here on this blog, that’s because innovation in large organizations often is the result of employees cultivating an entrepreneurial mindset and the organization acting like a venture capitalist in support of those individual efforts.

Fully one-third of MINITRENDS is devoted to fostering creativity in large organizations. The book is inspiring to individual employees and provides them with a set of skills for identifying and qualifying trends that show promise for profitable development in the near future. It should be required reading in organizations that hope to outlive their founders.

STEVE O’KEEFE
News Editor, Minitrends Blog

Source: “Embedding Sustainability in Organizational Culture” (PDF), Network for Business Sustainability, December 2010
Image courtesy of the Network for Business Sustainabilty, used under Fair Use: Reporting.

Freakonomics: Are Economists Smarter Than You?

November 30, 2010

University of Chicago economist Steven D. Levitt has made a surprisingly handsome living out of his knowledge of basic economic principals. Levitt is the author, with Stephen J. Dubner, of the bestselling book, Freakonomics, which revels in all kinds of quirky stories united by their economic fundamentals.

Freakonomics was released in 2005 and became a freakish bestseller. That lead to the Freakonomics Blog, which is hosted by The New York Times. Here, authors Levitt and Dubner look at “the hidden side of everything.” What they mostly find is a rational explanation for even the most bizarre behavior. That explanation is almost always plain old fashioned self-interest. “People act according to incentives,” summarizes Levitt.

So you can’t blame Levitt for responding to the incredible interest in how economists analyze the mysteries of the universe with his second book, SuperFreakonomics, with co-author Dubner. The authors note, for example, that men and women will become prostitutes when the pay for the oldest profession rises to a high enough level compared to their current profession.

The Freakonomics franchise has also spawned a podcast, Freakonomics Radio, and even a movie, Freakonomics: The Movie, which opened October 1 of this year. Reviews of the movie, which explores such ideas as paying people to do well in school, have been generally positive. People like Freakonomics, even if they don’t care much for the economic rules beneath it.

Studies have shown that the general public holds strong beliefs that go against fundamental economic principles. For example, economists love free trade; the general public, not so much. Workers correctly perceive that free trade leads to pressure for lower wages when one must compete with workers in other countries who will do the same job for less. They like the less expensive consumer goods they get from foreign countries, but dislike the wage competition.

Economists are also more comfortable with downturns in the economy than the general public. People in general are overly pessimistic when things aren’t going well. Economists tend to take a longer range view of these matters. For example, economists know that housing prices will recover their recent losses, because those prices are ultimately determined by population growth. That’s not much comfort if you’re underwater on your mortgage or unemployed and looking at lower-paying job prospects.

Some people (probably not economists) believe economists think the way they do because they have well-paying jobs and learned their simplistic ideology in school. But a new study by — you guessed it — economists, shows that the economics mindset comes not from education but from intelligence. Smart people think like economists.

The study, entitled “Intelligence Makes People Think Like Economists,” was recently published in the journal, Intelligence. The authors analyzed information from the giant General Social Survey conducted by the National Opinion Research Center. They selected 34 questions to look at where economists in general have strong views, such as “Generally speaking, would you say that America benefits or does not benefit from being a member of NAFTA?” They then correlated the answers with factors such as race, gender, education, and intelligence. Intelligence was based on IQ estimates resulting from vocabulary studies. Any economist would say that vocabulary and intelligence are not the same thing, but it’s as close as the data comes to measuring IQ.

The end result of this complex analysis? “IQ turns out to be the single strongest predictor of economic beliefs.” The authors go to further lengths and state that, “There is little reason to doubt the straightforward ‘economists are right, the public is wrong’ interpretation of most lay-expert belief gaps.”

I’m sure the Freakonomics authors would agree. For their take on how the world should be run, I recommend the Freakonomics Radio broadcast entitled, “What Would the World Look Like if Economists Were in Charge?”

STEVE O’KEEFE
News Editor, Minitrends Blog

Source: “Intelligence Makes People Think Like Economists,” Science Direct, 10/13/10
Source: “What Would the World Look Like if Economists Were in Charge?” Freakonomics Radio, 03/23/10

Technology Trends for Seniors

November 2, 2010

Today’s senior citizens have a completely different idea of “retirement” from what that concept has historically meant. Among other things, they plan to use the Internet to stay current and active in their communities and in the workplace.

Those are some of the findings in a recent survey (PDF) completed by the Mather LifeWays Institute on Aging, which polled 435 senior living communities about trends in programs, services, amenities, and environments.

What they discovered was that seniors love their tech! Here are some of the technology trends highlighted in the survey:

• Senior living centers need to incorporate “smart home” technology and wireless connectivity into senior living residences
• Seniors want access to “tele-health technology” in their residences
• Seniors want some variation of the “Beacon Hill” program, a senior resources network that helps arrange for everything from ride-sharing to continuing education for seniors
• Senior center residents are demanding Web-based learning and lifelong learning opportunities
• These socially-conscious seniors want to see residences that are certified environmentally-friendly

Mather LifeWays expects to see a wave of partnerships flourish between senior living centers and educational institutions, green building firms, and technology companies “in order to meet and exceed expectations of the next generation of older adults.”

In their new book, MINITRENDS, John & Carrie Vanston cite the evolution of meaningful maturity as the source of numerous Minitrends:

Within the Megatrend of an aging population, are the Minitrends of people remaining active in the workforce for longer periods of time and increasing movement of elderly individuals to smaller nursing centers.

The Vanstons go on to list several business opportunities resulting from the growing number of healthy, active senior citizens.

A roundup article that appeared recently on the Technology News and Tips blog covers not only the Institute on Aging survey cited above, but also a “New Retirement Survey” from Merrill Lynch and a survey of senior living community owners by Ziegler Capital Markets. These reports concluded that “baby boomers will fundamentally reinvent retirement by living longer and remaining engaged and employed beyond age 65.”

Most of these writings were in the works before retirement-age workers saw their savings slammed by the Great Recession. Today, many more seniors expect to stay in the workforce longer — whether they like it or not — due to financial concerns. There are enormous opportunities waiting for those who can help these “silver surfers” use technology to stay connected, educated, and vital members of their communities and workplaces.

STEVE O’KEEFE
News Editor, Minitrends Blog

Source: “Senior Living Community Trends,” Technology News and Tips, 10/24/10.
Source: “MINITRENDS: How Innovators & Entrepreneurs Discover & Profit From Business & Technology Trends,” Technology Futures, Inc., pp. 104-112.
Source: “Trend Survey Reveals Future of Senior Living Communities — Maintaining Resident Independence a Top Priority” (PDF), Mather LifeWays, 05/19/09.
Image by Ed Yourdon, used under its Creative Commons license.

U.S. Entrepreneurs Take More Risks Than Europeans, Chinese

October 14, 2010

According to a poll conducted in China, the U.S., and 27 European Union member states, American entrepreneurs are much more comfortable with taking risks than their global rivals.

The survey was conducted by Gallup Flash Eurobarometer and involved 1,000 participants in China, 1,000 in the U.S., and 1,000 in the E.U. In response to the question, “In general, I am willing to take risks,” 85% of Americans agreed or strongly agreed, compared to 65% of those from China or the E.U.

The survey was conducted in December 2009, but the results were first reported by Gallup just this week. Sizing up the poll, Gallup concludes:

In terms of individual attitudes related to entrepreneurship, the U.S. seems to have a cultural advantage over the European Union.

Not only are Americans willing to take risk, they’re positive about the outcome. When the survey asked whether people agree with the statement, “Generally, when I face difficult tasks, I am confident I will accomplish them,” a whopping 96% of Americans said “hell, yes” (agreed or strongly agreed), compared with 81% for Europeans and 91% for the Chinese.

This “cockiness quotient” was noted recently in the film, Waiting for Superman, which found that out of 30 developed countries, the U.S. ranks 26th in math, 21st in science, but first in confidence! Americans might not know what they’re doing, but they’re sure they’re going to get it done, and they don’t mind gambling on the outcome.

So here’s to you, American entrepreneurs, full of spit and vinegar! If you can figure out how to fix your educational system, there’s no telling what you can achieve.

STEVE O’KEEFE
News Editor, Minitrends Blog

Source: “Entrepreneur Mindset More Common in U.S. Than in EU, China,” Gallup, 10/12/10
Source: “Leaders Tackle Challenges Of Education Reform,” NPR, 09/29/10
Image by EvelynGiggles, used under Creative Commons license.

New Gates Foundation Grants for Education Technology and Innovation

October 13, 2010

On Monday, October 11, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation announced funding for a $20 million grant program for research in education technology. The program will award grants in the amount of $250,000 or $750,000 for periods of up to 15 months.

Katherine Long, who covers the education beat for the Seattle Times, reports on a conference call with Bill Gates, who announced the program:

The Next Generation Learning Challenge will provide grants to educators and entrepreneurs to develop more fully promising technology tools.

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is a sprawling philanthropic empire. It is divided into four main “topics” — Global Health, Poverty & Development, Education & Information, and Special Projects. These four categories of giving are broken down into 25 sub-topics, one of which is U.S. Postsecondary Education.

Within this subtopic, there are many different grant opportunities, including “Completion By Design” grants to improve community college completion rates, and the “Next Generation Learning Challenges.” A key clue as to the kinds of ideas the Foundation hopes to see is that these are “Innovation and Technology” grants. The site explains:

As part of our strategy, we are encouraging the development of new models of postsecondary education and the innovative use of technology to help meet the needs of more students at a higher quality with a lower cost.

Huffington Post college editor Leah Finnegan enthusiastically embraced the grants as support for online learning. However, there is nothing in the Request for Proposals (RFP) that requires projects to include an online component.

There is a long, bureaucratic arm that administers the Next Generation Learning Challenge grants, descending from the Gates Foundation through EDUCAUSE, The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, and finally to the Next Generation Learning website, where you can find the rather daunting RFP (PDF). Here, we learn that the program is targeting four specific areas of technological innovation:

• Open Core Courseware ($750,000 grants)
• Blended Learning ($250,000 grants)
• Deeper Learning ($250,000 grants)
• Learner Analytics ($250,000 grants)

Each of these four areas is described in some detail in the RFP. If you are involved in education technology, you can learn a lot from reviewing the Next Generation Learning website, whether or not you choose to enter a grant competition. The site is full of case histories of significant developments in higher education. Proposals from grant winners and even grant losers are fertile territory for the discovery of Minitrends.

STEVE O’KEEFE
News Editor, Minitrends Blog

Source: “Gates Foundation launches $20M effort to improve online college instruction,” Seattle Times, October 11, 2010.
Source: “Gates Foundation Aims to Put The .Edu in Education,” Huffington Post, 10/11/10
Source: “Request for Proposals — Rules and Guidelines” (PDF), Next Generation Learning Challenges
Image by World Economic Forum, used under Creative Commons license.